Ten years following the UK entered into a hurried referendum that split the country and triggered chaos, a warning comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
The government and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the same might transpire with a referendum on a united Ireland, triggering disturbances for which nobody is ready.
That conveys the caution from two leading commentators from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Establishments Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a possibly contentious and transformative public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can gather momentum swiftly," the commentator remarked. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our islands remains highly fragile."
Released Volume Intends to Stir Debate
The pair have examined the political, economic and cultural reasons for any structural alteration in a book, Examining Irish Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to provoke discussion on the issue with a roadshow of speaking events that will lead them to Westminster soon.
"What haunts everyone, or must worry every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said the analyst.
"We must avoid a referendum on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose implications have remained undefined because then you find yourself with an highly polarised community where the losing side are unable to accept defeat and the victorious side lack clarity quite what it is that they have gained."
Legal Framework
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unification if it seems probable that a majority would support.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups say this point is looming, and a organisation named Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions play down the prospect, leaving it unclear when or if there will be a referendum.
Absence of Substantive Discussion
Partisan language for and against unification has masked the absence of serious debate, said McBride.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the concept but the concrete planning which may surpass that to realise it has largely not occurred. Much has gone on in universities but very few elected officials or advocates want to engage with the essentials. As an example, what type of nation should be desired? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the publication, none of the commentators endorses unification or the status quo. Both authors two pieces that seek impartiality in detailing the argument for a unified Ireland and the case opposing it, marshalling financial and social data, historical precedents and structural examples.
Arguments range over national emblems, levies, health services, pensions, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of unionist unrest. The aim is to educate and stimulate discussion.
"There's huge interest in the topic but there has not yet occurred a discussion," stated O’Toole. "Debate suggests an acknowledgement of the notion that there might be reasonable perspectives on both sides."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate say they prefer unification but reject paying higher taxes or implementing a different emblem to recognise unionists' British culture.
"The Irish government should determine what the plan from Irish nationalism is other than just declaring: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," said the commentator.
Probability of Public Vote
McBride thinks a referendum in his era is possible and that it could happen abruptly. "It is possible just a reckless or a poor or a incompetent secretary of state who states: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"
Both nationalists and unionists have credible, valid points, he said. "One side will win here and somebody will eventually lose but both parties has got valuable insights to acquire from the alternative positions."
Request for Wider Debate
Westminster must engage with the discussion, urged O’Toole. "This involves the United Kingdom. It is a British question as much as it is an Irish matter."
